The takeaway
BFCM subscribers are most likely to cancel at order two, when the introductory price ends and before the product has had time to show results. Send one short message before each of the first three renewals that says what they should notice by now, what the next box does, and what it costs. Set it up before BFCM so the first message reaches the cohort before their December renewal.
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An example
Illustrative example: the three-month skincare routine from Gift SKUs, sold as a 30-day subscription at $36 then $48. Any results you describe must be ones you can substantiate.
| Sent | Before order | Message |
|---|---|---|
| 3 days before renewal (late Dec) | 2 | "Four weeks in, most people notice their skin feels less tight by the afternoon. Your next box ships 27 Dec at $48 and adds the serum." |
| 3 days before renewal (late Jan) | 3 | "Month two is when the routine settles. Next box: the full routine, 27 Jan." |
| 3 days before renewal (late Feb) | 4 | "Twelve weeks in. Here's what to keep doing, and what you can swap if something isn't working." |
The order-two message states the new price and date in the same line as the reason to stay.
Put it into practice
- Write the timeline from what the product actually does. List what a customer can reasonably notice at weeks four, eight and twelve. Remove anything you could not support if challenged; a claim that doesn't happen is a cancellation reason.
- Trigger each message from the renewal reminder. Use the upcoming-order event for orders two, three and four, sent about three days before the charge. [confirm with product: which subscription events are sent to Klaviyo and whether the order number is available as a property.]
- Put the price and date in the order-two message. The subscriber should learn about the step from $36 to $48 from you, before the charge, next to the reason to continue.
- Filter to the BFCM cohort. Limit the flow to subscribers on the BFCM selling plan or acquired in the BFCM window, so regular subscribers don't receive messages meant for new ones.
- Test with a test subscription. Move a test subscription through orders two to four and check each message arrives before its renewal with the right date and price.
Watch out for
- Claims you can't back up. Health and results claims carry legal risk, and an unmet promise at week four makes the cancellation more likely.
- Burying the price change. A subscriber who finds $48 on their statement feels misled at exactly the order you need them to keep.
- One timeline for every product. A supplement and a coffee subscription build habits differently. Write one per product line.
Measure the result
Track retention at orders two and three for this year's BFCM cohort against last year's cohort on the same plan, and the share of order-two cancellations that give price as the reason. Review after the December and January cycles.
Related entries: Step-Down Discount · Cohort Order · Streak Programme