The takeaway
Give new subscribers an introductory discount that ends after a defined number of orders. This lets you offer a stronger incentive to join while keeping later orders at your regular subscription price. Choose the introductory rate using your costs and expected repeat purchases, and show both prices before checkout.
An example
Illustrative example: a box delivered every 30 days.
A box costs $60 as a one-time purchase. Regular subscribers pay $48, a 20% discount. For BFCM, you offer new subscribers 40% off their first order, then return them to the regular subscription rate.
| Order | Discount from the $60 price | Subscriber pays |
|---|---|---|
| First order | 40% | $36 |
| Second order onward | 20% | $48 |
The extra BFCM saving is $12 on the first box. Subsequent orders follow the brand's regular subscription pricing.
The offer could appear on the widget as:
Subscribe: $36 for your first order, then $48 every 30 days.
Put it into practice
- Choose a first-order price you can support. List your regular subscription price, variable order costs and acquisition cost. Compare possible introductory rates using expected repeat orders. If you lack historical data, model a range of repeat-order outcomes and start with a limited test.
- Configure the discount change. In your selling plan, set the introductory discount for the first order and the regular discount from the second order. In this example, those rates are 40% and 20%. Selling-plan discount changes apply to new subscribers only; existing subscribers keep their configuration.
- Show both prices clearly. Put the first-order price, renewal price and delivery frequency together on the widget. Check that the information shown through checkout and in the subscription confirmation is consistent with the offer.
- Verify the purchase and renewal setup. Use a test subscription to check the first charge and the configured price for the next order. Test any other promotion codes customers can apply, since additional Shopify discounts can change the amount they pay.
- Plan the end of the promotion. Assign an owner and an end time. Restore the standard offer for new signups when the campaign closes, and verify that existing BFCM subscribers retain their agreed pricing schedule.
Watch out for
- Choosing the discount from a competitor's offer. Their costs and repeat-purchase behaviour may differ from yours. Model the offer using your own assumptions.
- Treating the renewal price as a footnote. Customers should understand the change when they subscribe.
- Assuming a stronger introductory offer improves retention. Check whether those customers complete paid renewals after the price changes.
Measure the result
Track how long cumulative contribution after variable order costs takes to recover acquisition cost across the original cohort, including customers who cancel. Use paid second-order completion as an early signal. Review after the first renewal window; if customers leave before order two, investigate their cancellation reasons and the price transition.
Related entries: Cohort Order · Inventory & COGS Forecast · Hero Widget
Prompts: 01 The offer architecture · 10 Set the discount
Product references: Subscription discounts · Selling plans FAQs · Cohort analytics