The takeaway
Before you set a BFCM discount, read how last year's subscribers retained by order number, grouped by the plan they joined on. The plan that converted best is often not the one that kept subscribers paying, so rank plans by lifetime value rather than by signups. Do this in September or early October so the result feeds the discount decision.
An example
Illustrative example: retention by order number for three plans, read from cohort analytics.
| Plan subscribers joined on | Order 2 | Order 3 | Order 4 | Order 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% off, held on every order | 82% | 54% | 31% | 18% |
| 40% first order, then 20% | 74% | 61% | 49% | 38% |
| 20% flat, no BFCM rate | 69% | 57% | 46% | 35% |
The held-forever plan looks strongest at order two and weakest by order six. The step-down plan gives up eight points at order two and keeps twice as many subscribers at order six. If average LTV follows the same order, the step-down plan is the one to build this year's offer on.
Put it into practice
- Define the cohorts you will compare. Open Analytics → Cohorts and set the acquisition window to last year's BFCM period. If you ran more than one offer, filter by selling plan and delivery frequency so each cohort matches one offer. You should end with one cohort per plan.
- Read retention by order number. For each cohort, note the share of subscribers who completed orders two, three, four and six. Order two shows whether the price change held; orders four and six show whether the plan built a habit.
- Rank the plans by average LTV, not by conversion. Loop reports average subscriber LTV as cumulative revenue, so it does not include your costs. If two plans are close, compare them after variable order costs. The plan with the highest LTV per subscriber is your candidate.
- Check the winner against a normal month. Compare the BFCM cohort with the cohorts acquired the month before and the month after on the same plan. If the BFCM cohort retained worse than both, the discount rather than the plan is the problem, and the fix is in Step-Down Discount.
- Record the decision. Write down the plan, its retention figures and the LTV it will be judged against, so you can run the same comparison on this year's cohort.
Watch out for
- Ranking by signups. The plan with the most subscribers in November is not necessarily the one that paid back acquisition cost.
- Comparing plans on different cadences by month. A 30-day plan reaches order four a month earlier than a 60-day plan. Compare by order number, not by calendar date.
- Reading LTV as profit. It is revenue. Bring your costs in before you decide.
Measure the result
Track retention at order two and average LTV for this year's BFCM cohort against the plan you built it on. Review order two after the first renewal window in late December, and LTV at order four around March. If this year's cohort retains worse than last year's on the same plan, check whether the product or channel mix changed before you blame the offer.
Related entries: Step-Down Discount · Inventory & COGS Forecast · Results Timeline
Prompts: 07 Last BFCM, honestly · 09 Which offer actually retains