The takeaway
Four prompts that turn last year's cohort retention into a one-page BFCM offer brief your team can sign off.
The prompts
Use this in the planning weeks, once you have last year's BFCM cohort exported. The prompts read the data first, then choose an offer, then test it against your margin, so the brief rests on numbers rather than habit.
What to paste in
- Last year's BFCM cohort: subscribers acquired, and how many were still active at 30, 60 and 90 days
- The same numbers for a normal month, for comparison
- Your average order value, gross margin and shipping cost per order
- The offers you ran last year and what each one cost
The prompts
Run them in order in one chat, so each prompt builds on the last answer. Replace everything in [BRACKETS].
You are a subscription retention analyst for a DTC brand.
Here is our cohort data from last year's BFCM and from a normal month: [PASTE TABLE].
Compare the two. Tell me where BFCM subscribers dropped off faster, by how much, and at which renewal. Keep it to five bullet points and show the numbers you used.
Based on that analysis, propose three BFCM offer structures for this year (for example: a first-order discount, a step-down discount over three orders, a free gift on the second order).
For each, say which drop-off it is designed to fix, what it costs per subscriber, and the risk if it goes wrong.
Our average order value is [AOV], gross margin is [MARGIN %] and shipping costs [SHIPPING] per order.
For each of the three offers, estimate profit per subscriber over the first three orders, assuming the retention you found for last year's BFCM cohort. Show the working as a table.
Write a one-page offer brief for the option with the best three-order profit.
Sections: the offer in one sentence, who it is for, why this offer (the data), what it costs, how we will know it worked by January, and the open questions for the team.
Check the output
- Every number in the brief should trace back to your pasted table; ask the assistant to cite the row if one does not.
- If two offers are within 10% on profit, prefer the one with the simpler message.